A keynote session at the AMCP 2025 Annual Meeting addressed timely pharmaceutical market trends and predicted how the healthcare industry will be impacted over the next few months.
In the last 5 years, the United States has become increasingly dependent on imported pharmaceuticals; in 2024, 71% of US pharmaceutical imports came from the European Union, with more than 40% coming from Ireland. The API [Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient] Innovation Center has called the United States “over-reliant” on foreign-sourced drug active pharmaceutical ingredient chemicals. Meanwhile, nearly 30% of US pharmaceutical manufacturing sites are only operating at utilization levels of 50% or less, with just 2 of 37 sites producing at full capacity.
In 2024, 87.7% of dispensed prescriptions were for unbranded generics, and the price of generic drugs has decreased by approximately 20% since 2019. Branded drug spend, however, is increasing. In 2018, 7 branded drugs were equivalent to the total generic business; in 2024, the cost of just 2 branded drugs was equivalent to the generic business.
Biosimilars are still seeing slow growth and will take time to prompt erosion of originator biologic sales. According to an IQVIA Institute report, 118 biologics are expected to lose patent protection between 2025 and 2034, presenting a $232 billion opportunity for biosimilars. In order to realize this potential, stakeholders must address the challenges affecting biosimilar breakthrough.
Glucagon-like peptide (GLP)–1 agonists dominated the previous year’s launch sales, and neurology and oncology were the top therapy areas in 2024. The presenters noted the following as markets to watch:
- Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis
- Respiratory vaccines
- Humira biosimilars
- GLP-1s (for sleep apnea)
Drug shortages are decreasing after reaching a peak in early 2024; there are currently 92 drug molecules in shortage, according to the FDA. Shortages are primarily due to manufacturing delays, quality problems, and increased demand.
In a 2024 NIH study, almost 16 million people live in a pharmacy desert (4.7% of the population), and this mainly affects those:
- Without health insurance
- Who have a high school education or less
- Who identify as a racial or ethnic minority
These deserts disproportionately exist in rural or marginalized neighborhoods, which compounds other health inequities. More than 2,700 retail pharmacies closed in 2023 and 2024, with 5,800 fewer pharmacies since 2018. This has pushed added volume to existing pharmacies, increasing pressure.
GLP-1s continue to be a big industry driver, affecting both sides of the pharmacy counter. One in 8 adults says they have taken a GLP-1 agonist, with 62% saying they have taken them to treat a chronic condition such as diabetes or heart disease. More than half of individuals (54%) who have taken a GLP-1 report difficulty affording the medication. GLP-1 agonists now account for 54.9% of the diabetes market.
Looking ahead, the presenters noted that oncology and obesity will drive growth through 2028, whereas diabetes, immunology, and COVID-19 markets will continue to slow.
The role of the pharmacist continues to expand into areas such as naloxone services, tobacco cessation services, HIV prevention services, tuberculosis testing, and more.
Reference
Biggs S, Long DM. 2024-2025 Health care and pharmaceutical marketplace trends. Presented at: AMCP 2025; March 31-April 3, 2025; Houston, TX. Session K1.
